**Iranian parliament committee advances Hormuz bill as strait traffic stays near standstill**<\/p>\n
TEHRAN \u2014 Iran\u2019s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee is reviewing a bill on the management and strategic development of the Strait of Hormuz clause by clause, a step that would write into statute restrictions that have already kept most commercial traffic out of the waterway for most of the past seven months.<\/p>\n
Committee member Hassan Ghashghavi said on Sept. 17 that the legislation is advancing before a vote by the full chamber. Earlier reporting from Iranian state media described provisions that would bar vessels from the United States, Israel and other states Tehran regards as hostile, prohibit cargo affiliated with Israel, and allow fines of up to 20 percent of the value of goods carried. The Armed Forces General Staff would identify hostile acts; the Supreme National Security Council would designate sanctioning countries or entities.<\/p>\n
The strait, a narrow chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, carried roughly one-fifth of the world\u2019s seaborne oil and a large share of liquefied natural gas before fighting began. Iranian forces declared it closed days after U.S. and Israeli strikes that started Feb. 28. Crossings have since collapsed from a pre-crisis baseline of about 85 ships a day. IMF PortWatch recorded eight transits on Sept. 13; other trackers have shown single-digit daily totals in recent sessions. Hundreds of vessels and thousands of crew were trapped inside the Gulf in the early months of the crisis.<\/p>\n
Markets have priced the risk for months. Energy analysts note that oil futures, tanker rates and war-risk insurance typically move on political signaling as much as on confirmed blockades. Even limited or selective restrictions raise the cost of moving crude and products out of Gulf producers. Those costs feed through to refiners, freight, and eventually retail fuel and imported goods. Prolonged uncertainty tends to weigh more heavily on investment and inflation expectations than a short, contained disruption.<\/p>\n
Legal and operational questions remain contested. Coastal states have rights in their territorial waters, but major straits used for international navigation are also governed by long-standing rules on innocent passage and transit passage. Iran has framed its measures as defensive responses to a U.S. naval blockade and continued military operations. Washington and several Gulf states have insisted on free, unrestricted navigation and rejected tolls or exclusive Iranian management of the channel. Parallel talks with Oman on temporary entry and exit routes and a \u201cmanaged corridor\u201d have produced technical understandings, according to Iranian officials, but a broader regional endorsement has not materialized. A planned gathering of Iran, Iraq and GCC states in Oman was postponed after Saudi objections.<\/p>\n
Tehran has said any reopening remains tied to U.S. fulfillment of conditions it associates with a June memorandum of understanding: lifting the blockade and oil sanctions, releasing frozen assets, ending military operations, and other demands. IRGC and parliamentary officials have repeated that the waterway will not reopen if those terms are rejected. China has urged restraint and a resumption of traffic. The United States has continued to describe the strait as a matter of international concern and has provided coordination for some commercial movements.<\/p>\n
For shipping companies and insurers, the practical effect is a mix of official Iranian corridors, unofficial southern routes near Oman (sometimes with AIS switched off), and periodic attacks or warnings. Traffic that does move is often dominated by Iranian- or Chinese-linked vessels on the northern side. Insurance premiums and freight rates remain elevated relative to peacetime. Strategic petroleum reserves and alternative pipelines\u2014such as Saudi Arabia\u2019s East-West line\u2014have been used to offset some lost Gulf loadings, but they cannot fully replace the volume that once passed Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Diplomacy continues on two tracks: the parliamentary bill and the Oman channel. Ghashghavi described them as proceeding in parallel. Iranian officials have also discussed a restricted zone extending beyond the strait into parts of the Gulf and Sea of Oman, with vessels entering it placed on a sanctions list and denied future services. Maps of a new corridor in Iranian and Omani waters have been described as close to finalization, though implementation would still leave the larger question of a full reopening unresolved.<\/p>\n
Information about day-to-day movements is incomplete. Some vessels transit without broadcasting positions. Official claims from all sides have at times outpaced independent tracking data. Analysts and governments have warned that unverified reports can amplify price swings and public anxiety. Monitoring agencies and commercial trackers remain the main source for assessing actual volumes.<\/p>\n
Past episodes of tension in the same waterway produced naval patrols, coalition statements, and intense back-channel talks rather than a permanent legal rewrite of the strait\u2019s status. Whether the current bill becomes binding law, and whether it is applied uniformly or used mainly as leverage, will depend on further votes, executive implementation, and the military and diplomatic balance. A committee markup is not the same as an immediate, comprehensive shutdown of remaining traffic.<\/p>\n
The episode underscores how concentrated global energy logistics remain. A stretch of water only a few dozen kilometers wide at its narrowest point still shapes prices, insurance markets, and diplomatic calendars far from the Gulf. Diversification of supply routes, strategic stocks, and energy sources has been a stated policy goal for many importers precisely because of this vulnerability. Those buffers have limited the shock so far; they have not removed it.<\/p>\n
What happens next is not predetermined by a parliamentary committee schedule. Implementation would require additional legal and administrative steps. Negotiations with Oman and pressure from major importers such as China could still produce a limited, managed corridor even if the bill advances. Conversely, further military incidents or a collapse in talks could keep volumes near current lows. For now, the combination of statutory drafting in Tehran, sparse daily crossings, and unresolved U.S.-Iran conditions keeps the world\u2019s most important energy chokepoint at the center of market and diplomatic attention.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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